GST impact in Q1 will pull down GDP for whole year

The note comes days after the Central Statistical Office came out with its advanced estimates of growth for FY18 suggesting a slowdown in GDP expansion to 6.5% the lowest in four years

In the first half (April-September) of the financial year ending 31 March, the economy grew at 6%, indicating that it will accelerate in the second half (October-March) of the financial year.

The overall GDP growth rate projected was lower than what was forecasted by the Economic Survey in the range of 6.75-7.5 per cent and this gives a reason to analysts for believing that because of these statistics and the fact that if projections of the International Monetary Fund come true, India might lose the tag of being the fastest-growing large economy to China.

Meanwhile, agriculture is expected to grow by a mere 2.1 per cent this fiscal, while manufacturing is estimated to expand by 4.6 per cent. "Confirms strong turnaround of the economy", economic affairs secretary Subhash Chandra Garg said in a post on Twitter.

The government's statistics wing will have data only for additional one or two months than what it had for its second quarter (July-September) GDP estimate to make the full-year GDP growth projection.

According to Chief Statistician T.C.A. Anant, the de-stocking disruption caused due to the GST implementation has impacted the full-year Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates.

Manufacturing: Manufacturing is likely to decelerate sharply to grow at 4.6%, compared with 7.9% a year ago.

The estimate will play a crucial role in the finance ministry before presenting the Budget 2018 on February 1.

The first advance estimates show nominal GDP at Rs 166.3 lakh crore, a 9.5% increase over past year.

Unfazed by the official GDP figures showing that the Indian economy will grow at a slower pace compared to the last fiscal, NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar said the GDP growth will become more robust in 2018-19. The economy grew at 7.1% in 2016-17. This is less than half of the last year's growth rate of 4.9%.

The GDP data could be revised upwards as the current projections are based on incomplete output and corporate income data, amid signs that people are buying more goods and companies are adding new capacities to meet growing demand.

The Gross Value Added (GVA) has been projected to be at 6.1 per cent versus 6.6 in the previous year.

"Q3 numbers should be higher than 6.5 per cent and Q4 numbers will be close to 7 per cent", Debroy said. It was also 0.1 per cent higher than the consensus forecast from a poll of city economists.

Related News:

  • Kyrgios powers to Brisbane title

    Kyrgios powers to Brisbane title

    There will be no all-Australian final after Harrison ended Alex de Minaur's dream run. Like Kyrgios, Peers says a Davis Cup breakthrough is not out of question.
    Republican wins lottery-style drawing for control of Virginia statehouse

    Republican wins lottery-style drawing for control of Virginia statehouse

    The drawing of lots took place after an election, recount and legal battles between Yancey and Simonds ended in a tie. The Republican in that race, Robert Thomas, was certified as the victor in late November over Democrat Joshua Cole.
    Fixer Upper' stars Chip and Joanna Gaines Expecting 5th Baby

    Fixer Upper' stars Chip and Joanna Gaines Expecting 5th Baby

    So if Chip and Joanna did, in fact, conceive the baby she's carrying that night she's about 12 weeks into her pregnancy. But, she later said, "Emmie has never really wanted one, and now she's like, 'Okay".
  • PM Modi To Address Top-Level Police Conference In Madhya Pradesh

    PM Modi To Address Top-Level Police Conference In Madhya Pradesh

    He said, the Government is focusing on identifying the aspirations of people of the districts which are lagging behind.
    Cuomo Promises to Sue Over New Tax Law

    Cuomo Promises to Sue Over New Tax Law

    Still, there are plenty of unanswered questions, including the legality of the ideas and how the federal government would respond. RoAnn Destito, commissioner of the New York State Office of General Services, was in Utica today to present Gov.
    Acer launches a new Chromebook 11 with USB-C

    Acer launches a new Chromebook 11 with USB-C

    While these Chromebooks come from HP, there have been rumours brewing up for another Chromebook, which is being made by Samsung. The Chromebook 14 G5, as the name suggests, has a 14-inch screen size that is configurable with up to HD Touch feature.
  • Here's the Very Likely End Date for 'The Big Bang Theory'

    The Big Bang Theory prequel also ranks as the #2 comedy among all network comedies, behind only the series that spawned it. CBS also reports Young Sheldon is the most-watched new comedy series on any network in 18 years.

    'The Crown': Helena Bonham Carter Gears Up to Play Princess Margaret

    But the excitement of it so far has been introducing new names, like Foy and Kirby. But the Harry Potter actress certainly has the haughtiness of the Princess.
    United States  denies reports of already freezing UNRWA funds

    United States denies reports of already freezing UNRWA funds

    The State Department official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said: "That [Axios] story is very misleading. A USA official denied the Channel 10 story on Friday afternoon, after it spread through United States media.
  • Nintendo Switch Is The Fastest Selling Console Ever In The USA

    For comparison, the Nintendo 3DS sold no more than 4 million units during the same timeframe in its launch year in the US. Fortunately for Nintendo, those people were completely wrong and the Nintendo Switch did very well.

    Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (VTEB) Rises 0.04% for Jan 5

    Coldstream Capital Management Inc. grew its position in shares of Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF by 11.5% in the third quarter. Financial Counselors Inc. increased its position in shares of Vanguard S&P 500 ETF by 1.1% during the third quarter.

    Nintendo set to sell neon 'Splatoon' Joy-Con controllers in the US

    As you can see above, the green Joy-Con in the Splatoon 2 bundle is the left controller, while the pink Joy-Con is on the right. EBGames thought the Joy-Cons would be available today, but instead we just get confirmation that the new colors are coming.

Most liked

Explosive Device Injures Two People Near Stockholm Subway Station
The underground station of Varby Gard and an adjacent square were closed while police carry out checks, they said in a statement. He died after being taken to hospital and a 45-year-old woman also suffered minor wounds to her face and both legs.

Donald Trump will announce 'Dishonest and Corrupt' Media Awards
Trump had panned Corker for the Iran deal and said he "didn't have the guts to run" for re-election. "I get it. There has never been good relations between Donald Trump and the mainstream American Media.

Son's super strike rescues a point for Spurs
The draw meant Tottenham only closed the gap on Liverpool in the fourth Champions League qualification place to three points.

Cooper: Trump farms out voting fraud probe to Department of Homeland Security
The White House announced tonight it is disbanding the Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity . State election officials rejected requests for their voter rolls as invasions of privacy.

Apple: App Store customers spent $890 million Christmas week
Apple apologised to customers who felt let down but maintained it hadn't done anything to deliberately shorten battery life. Fan favourites Clash of Clans, Candy Crush Saga, Enlight Videoleap, 1Password and Hulu also remained popular.

CES 2018: Samsung Notebook 7 Spin with faster processors, fingerprint scanner unveiled
Samsung's Studio Plus software provides an on-board photo and video editor option for users with creative interests. However, if you thought that the company was done announcing new notebooks, you'd be wrong.

Father Of Slender Man Attacker On New Movie: 'Extremely Distasteful'
In the meantime, check out our 2018 release list to plan your other trips to the movies in the New Year. The upcoming Slender Man project will mark the character's first appearance in a feature-length film.

Passengers remain stranded at JFK airport: 'It's complete chaos'
The Port Authority, which oversees operations at JFK, did not immediately respond to a question for comment on the ongoing delays. According to air travel tracking service Flightradar 24, dozens of planes had the same issues after landing.

Three-match ban for Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger after abusing match officials
The link provided Wenger with a list of the hospitality packages on offer for the match. On that front, nothing will change.

Twitter says it won't block tweets from world leaders
Elected world leaders play a critical role in that conversation due to their outsized impact on our society. No one person's account drives Twitter's growth, or influences these decisions.

Isaiah Thomas Explains Why He Didn't Want Video Tribute from Celtics
At 25-13, Cleveland is now sitting in 3rd place in the Eastern Conference, 4.5 games back of the 31-10 Celtics. Paul Pierce , then with the Clippers, squared off with Isaiah Thomas , then with the Celtics, in a 2016 game.

Travis Kelce ruled out of Wild Card game with concussion
Kelce has dealt with concussions earlier this season when he took a hard shot in Kansas City's primetime win over the Texans. The Chiefs continued their drive after Kelce was injured and extended their lead before the break.

NFC Wild Card Preview: Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
The Saints opened as four-point favorites; the total was 49 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Everything is set up for New Orleans to at least make it to the NFC Championship Game, and Brees is not getting any younger.

Jimmy Iovine plans to leave Apple Music in August
Jimmy Iovine has helped Apple Music reach 30 million paid users, nearly half way to Spotify's 70 million monthly paid subscribers. One of the chief architects of Apple's ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) push into streaming music appears set to leave the company this summer.

Khloe Kardashian Told Her Crew She Was Pregnant Before Her Actual Family
According to People Magazine , Kardashian wrote on her website that she is eating differently , but she definitely has cravings. DeGeneres tried to get Kardashian to call her sister to ask her herself, but eventually said , "She must be pregnant".