NOAA Winter Outlook: Warmer for Much of the United States

NOAA predicting mild winter in New England – Boston News, Weather, Sports

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released its winter (December-February) weather outlook for the USA, predicting a wetter-than-normal winter in the Carolinas and much of the south, contrasting with drought conditions in some far northern states.

In the winter, the NOAA said, typical El Nino conditions include wetter-than-average precipitation in the southern us and drier conditions in parts of the northern U.S. "During the winter, typical El Niño conditions in the USA can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North", according to NOAA.

Because of the uncertainty in seasonal prediction, NOAA's winter outlook is probabilistic in nature, meaning that a range of outcomes is possible in any area. Due to this, above-average temperatures look likely for the northern and western United States, Alaska and Hawaii.

The Climate Prediction Center's outlook seems to at least indirectly contradict the one released by the 2019 Farmers' Almanac, an annual Lewiston-based publication which uses a mathematical and astronomical formula created in 1818 to come up with long-range forecasts.

But North and SC, along with much of the southeast and Mid-Atlantic, the Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley, "all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures", NOAA said.

The reason behind the milder-than-normal winter is the developing El Nino, which is when the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean has warmer-than-normal surface water.

-No part of the favored to have below-average temperatures.

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Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the southern tier of the USA, and up into the Mid-Atlantic.

- Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the southern tier of the USA, and up into the Mid-Atlantic.

Above-average rainfall is most likely northern Florida and southern Georgia this winter. Portions of the Northern Rockies and the Northern Plains are also likely to experience drier-than-average conditions.

- Warmer-than-normal conditions are anticipated across much of the northern and western US, with the greatest likelihood in Alaska and from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains.

-This outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations.

NOAA's winter forecast comes as the mercury is finally beginning to dip across most of the country after a summer that lasted well into October in the eastern USA, with temperatures into the 80s and even 90s.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month.

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