Obama Campaigns for Vulnerable Senate Democrats Ahead of Midterms

A truck drives displaying a message reading ‘Vote Out Hate

Polls show Democrats on Tuesday should win the 23 seats they need to assume control of the House of Representatives and perhaps as many as 15 or 20 seats beyond that. That's unlikely, by all accounts, because the map is so friendly for the GOP.

Republicans see the seat as one of their most promising chances of picking up an extra Senate seat and have spent heavily in the race.

Cynthia Nixon of "Sex and the City" fame lost the Democratic primary for governor, and to free up the Working Families Party ballot line for Gov. Andrew Cuomo she was added to the ballot for this Assembly seat.

In a final memo before Tuesday's election, the Cook Political Report's race-by-race forecast moves two Republicans, Pennsylvania Rep. Scott Perry and Georgia's Karen Handel, into the tossup category. They need just 24 seats to win control.

Traditionally, the president's party does badly in the midterms, and Trump also has low poll ratings compared to other presidents at this point in their administration.

The Democrats are 4-9 odds on favourites to win the House, according to bookmakers Coral. Most top races, however, are set in America's suburbs where more educated and affluent voters in both parties have soured on Trump's turbulent presidency, despite the strength of the national economy. "The Democrats will do quite well in the House of Representatives, in the governorships and state legislatures". The fact that they are likely to win back a chamber that seemed so out of reach for the entire decade is big, in and of itself.

On the flip side, if Republicans maintain control of the House and Senate, that's not only a victory for the GOP, but a validation of Trump's brand of politics and his unconventional presidency.

If Senate Democrats thought their attempt to derail the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh as a Supreme Court justice would pay political dividends in November, they could not have been more wrong.

How it would happen: Let's assume we're underselling the size of the blue wave.

And, finally, even that subpoena power could pose some tough choices for Democrats. Democrats have a lengthy list of their own priorities they would like to vote on such as lowering prescription drug costs.

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The math in the Senate is better for Republicans. Heidi Heitkamp, a Democrat, in North Dakota. So, very simply, if you want more caravans and more crime, because crime comes with [caravans], vote for the Democrats.

An ABC News poll this week placed his job approval at 40 percent, while CNN's final survey put him at 39 percent, worst of any president heading into his first midterm, in records dating back to President Dwight D. Eisenhower.

What it would mean: This would be a clear repudiation of Trump, and there would be no other way to spin it.

We're now three days from the 2018 election - an election in which Republicans appear likely to lose the House.

Polling analyst Nate Silvers gave the Democrats a seven in eight chance of reclaiming the House, but just a one in six chance of winning a majority in the Senate. He told the AP last month that he won't bear any responsibility should Democrats take over.

Conversely you may wake up to discover that his party has retained both houses of Congress and he is confidently looking ahead to a second term in office. As many as 81 per cent of evangelicals voted for Mr Trump in 2016. FiveThirtyEight has them at a 1-in-8 shot. Their beliefs on subjects like immigration are already priced in to some extent too, of course, but the more Trump can drive up the fear factor, the more he might convince some populist stragglers to take an hour to go to the polls. One campaign mailer sent out by a Republican candidate for a state Senate seat in CT showed his Jewish opponent holding a wad of cash in front of him with a crazed look in his eyes, an unmistakable allusion to the familiar slur against Jews.

The GOP is expected to keep control of the closely divided U.S. Senate. Looking exclusively at Trump's approval rating, you would expect them to win up to 41, but allowance needs to be made for the Republicans' recent gerrymandering of district boundaries, which should help them hang on to around five seats that would otherwise flip. "There's so many things that are pushing this in unconventional ways", Klein said. It's really hard to rule anything out, given we're in uncharted territory here, and that all of our previous assumptions about how these things work have been called into question.

"You want to see Georgia prosperity end?" "It's not good for us", he said about (illegal) immigrants.

Aaron Blake is senior political reporter, writing for The Fix.

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